2014年7月6日星期日

The Real gist of the Fire Phone

The Real gist of the Fire Phone

Relatives assert been asking my view of the different Amazon Fire Phone, but I’ve had a quantity of mess answering. My pioneer corollary was overwhelmingly blah. I’ll subsist remarkable to try it, and maybe it follows that I’ll feel better not far off from it. But completely at this moment it seems to me like a bag of attention-grabbing facial appearance relatively than a coherent produce. (Quick, what did you say? Work out faux 3D imaging and a time of complimentary mail order shipping assert in the sphere of regular? Completely nothing.) Plus it’s obtainable from solitary lone portable operator, and the pricing isn’t low as much as necessary to prevail on any person excited. I’m delighted anytime a main company tries to innovate, but I can’t imagine this phone having a mammoth effect on the marketplace.

Many others are neutral to downright hostile. BGR wrote, “Amazon innovated in the sphere of all the wound seats.” And CNN whispered, “if you're jovial with your iPhone 5s or else Galaxy S5, there's rebuff compelling brains to change”

So why did Amazon build this produce?  Ben Thompson made a skilled commission with the aim of the phone is designed to strengthen Amazon’s association with its lucrative Prime customers.I’m certainly that’s part of the motivation. But if that’s the solitary goal, wouldn’t you assess the phone very low to grab further customers, the way you did Kindle? And because Ben himself renowned, near are many other things you may well work out to further candidly recruit Prime customers. On behalf of case in point, many of the Fire Phone apps may well assert been released discretely on behalf of machine and iOS. Wouldn’t with the aim of subsist a better way to attend Prime customers? Relatively than annoying to dart relatives away from their iPhones and Galaxies, why not right co-opt them through a few apps with the aim of run on their current phones? What did you say? Amazon’s liability is like promotion your own line of sofas because a way to distribute slipcovers.

And so I stab back to wondering why Amazon did it. Imagine you’re Jeff Bezos. You assert a absolutely permanent association with Apple and many other phone companies by the instant; why bend by hand into their blood enemy on behalf of a produce with the aim of with the aim of won’t move the needle in the sphere of sales?

To me, the Fire Phone reeks of research. I think Amazon’s trying something, and the research is eminent as much as necessary to consume a ton of money and create a quantity of competitive hostility. Later thinking not far off from it a quantity and annoying to look by the humankind through Amazon’s eyes, I think I can speculate why the Fire Phone would subsist tactically eminent to Amazon. I believe it’s not not far off from the phone marketplace; it’s not far off from the evolution of portable retail and the expectations of Amazon itself.

To explain why, I assert to bequeath a crumb of background on portable retail. On behalf of online retailers, the single the largest part frustrating mania not far off from portable skill, especially smartphones, is with the aim of it relatives using it don’t good buy a quantity of stuff. They’ll browse in the sphere of your muddle lumber room and bring into play your shopping app, but once it comes period to good buy they often don’t leverage. The industry declare of thumb is with the aim of a skilled retail situate on a individual central processing unit choice convert not far off from 3% of shoppers to buyers (in other lexis, on behalf of each 100 online shoppers you variety three sales). The conversion rate on behalf of smartphones is a third of with the aim of, not far off from 1%.

In the sphere of an industry with the aim of would slaughter to progress conversion by a tenth of a place, with the aim of ditch from 3% to 1% is horrifying. Many retail companies assert spent years annoying to locate it, and through incredible effort and wary experimentation it is indeed on the cards to add to the portable conversion rate. In the sphere of my daytime appointment by UserTesting that’s lone of the things I help companies work out. But it’s a dawdling process of incremental fixes, and in the sphere of the meantime portable muddle bring into play is growing explosively. Here’s the nightmare scenario on behalf of an online retailer:

—What if the subsequently generation of internet users moves to smartphones and wearables earlier than we can appear passй how to locate portable shopping?

—What if, because relatives move to portable, the conversion rate on behalf of our entirety corporation drops from 3% to 1%?

—And the largest part distressing on behalf of a kind leader like Amazon, what did you say? If the low conversion rate on portable is a sign with the aim of the online lumber room itself is not a skilled fit on behalf of smartphones? What did you say? If a few different portable skill or else app makes online shopping obsolete, right because online food assert been making traditional retail food obsolete? What did you say? If Amazon itself is the subsequently full-size tech fossil?

Don’t laugh. Platform transitions in the sphere of tech generally variety the old kind leaders obsolete. Read not far off from Lotus Development or else Digital Equipment Corporation if you don’t believe it.

With the aim of existential hazard is the kind of mania I’d expect Jeff Bezos to be concerned not far off from. It’s a mammoth alteration with the aim of comes from an unexpected direction and may well sever the core passй of his corporation. What’s worse, by the period the hazard becomes obvious it’ll probably subsist too recent to respond to it.

So the period to play a role is at this moment. Amazon needs to dive into portable and appear passй what did you say? The shopping experience would look like if you built it into a phone from the ground up.

If that’s Amazon’s motivation, it follows that the Fire Phone is really all not far off from Firefly, Amazon’s instant-buying skill. I think the question being tested is whether you can completely change a muddle lumber room with a correctly configured phone. What did you say? If, as a replacement for of departure to an online lumber room to good buy something, your phone itself became the lumber room? What did you say? If, as a replacement for of searching on behalf of the mania you require to good buy, you may well right take a picture of it, or else look at its barcode, or else say its specify?

Amazon all over. Futurist Paul Saffo position it this way: “Firefly allows Amazon to invade each lumber room in the sphere of each shopping mall on the planet and bend it into a de facto showroom on behalf of Amazon” (link). I’d stab even advance. I’d say Firefly is an effort to bend the complete humankind into an Amazon lumber room.

If Amazon makes with the aim of phone pioneer, it takes an extra full-size chunk passй of Walmart and Target and eBay and each other retailer passй near, animal or else virtual. If someone to boot makes it pioneer, Amazon itself is in the sphere of mortal danger.

I think that’s why Amazon had to variety a phone. It needs to test and change the integration of portable hardware and software in the sphere of the purchasing process, and with the aim of would not subsist on the cards on someone else’s phone. It besides doesn’t require to share the data it’ll amass with some other phone vendor (especially not lone combined with Google), since with the aim of may well subsist the means to the expectations of the entirety company.

From this perspective, the respite of the Fire Phone revelation makes further be aware of. You need to toss in the sphere of a not many sexy facial appearance, like the semi-3D screen, to fascinate a few users. The assess doesn’t assert to subsist low for the reason that Amazon doesn’t require to go a gazillion phones. Lone carrier in the sphere of lone countryside is as much as necessary for the reason that Amazon’s not pushing on behalf of humankind domination yet. It needs right as much as necessary users to bequeath it a robust experimental improper. It follows that it’ll observe, and it’ll realize, and it’ll jerk the research, and it’ll realize a few further.

And it follows that, once it gets the formula completely, we’ll set eyes on the real Amazon phone. I’d expect it to subsist further antagonistically priced and much further broadly obtainable. I wouldn’t subsist surprised to set eyes on Amazon besides delivery Firefly apps on behalf of other phones by the same period. By with the aim of place Amazon’s priority won’t subsist secrecy, it’ll subsist rapid domination.

Or else maybe the research choice fail. Maybe Amazon choice realize with the aim of near is rebuff charm way to bend a smartphone into a lumber room. In the sphere of with the aim of commission it’ll quietly variety the phone disappear, mark rancid the losses, and move on to other priorities. Hey, it’s right money, and we all know how Jeff Bezos feels not far off from with the aim of.

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